SILENT VOLCANO

SILENT VOLCANO


For almost three decades the children of this land have been relentlessly suppressed by the Iranian regime and this continuous repression has been carried out in the name of God. For nearly thirty years people have silently witnessed injustice and oppression for the sake of religion. All facets of people’s life have been constantly subjected to monitoring and supervision. The government has explicitly instructed the general public especially women how to dress or otherwise be prepared for punishment. Similar codes of conduct extended to other aspects of life such as music, movies, books, newspapers and even speeches. This absolute authoritarian approach of the regime overshadowed all forms of civil liberty beyond what anyone could have imagined.

During Khatami’s presidency, from 1997 to 2005, concepts such as; freedom of expression, citizens’ rights and liberalisation were advocated by him and his ministers. There was a window of opportunity for journalists, civil rights campaigners, film makers and public speakers to follow their long desired dreams. Interestingly and despite all the criticism, nobody even tried to undermine the religious authority of the regime. However, the whole society became aware of the importance of distinguishing between political and religious boundaries in the context of freedom. It did not last. It did not last because of the existence and power of some narrow minded politicians who see themselves as the guardians of the whole nation’s values. All those shining dreams faded away when Khatami and his ministers completed the term of office. As soon as they left and even shortly before that those who had enjoyed the freedom and expressed their ideas were arrested and put behind bars. The whole nation once again was confronted with the consequences of mental darkness and ignorance.

Ahamadinejad who has so far managed to disgrace one of the oldest nations on the face of the earth became the president of Iran. He has established a system of terror and intimidation among the general public especially those who believe in the necessity of fundamental reform. The last five years will always be remembered for being the darkest chapter of the history of Iran. However, the sequence of the post-election events, regardless of the possible outcome, has made one thing crystal clear; the country’s circumstances as well as the people’s attitude towards their politicians have irreversibly changed. After many years, now the whole nation is recognising it’s potential. They are neither afraid of the system nor ready for any compromise. The courage and bravery of ordinary people have revealed the greatest of all virtues of this nation. This “stream of people” may flow slowly or swiftly according to events and circumstances but it is not stoppable. It is only a matter of time when people decide to break through the thin crust over the volcano of revolution.

Shahin M

AFFLICTED WITH PAIN

AFFLICTED WITH PAIN

Human beings are members of a whole,
In creation of one essence and soul.
If one member is afflicted with pain,
Other members uneasy will remain.
If you have no sympathy for human pain,
The name of human you can not retain.

This poem by 13th century Persian poet Sa’adi, graces the entrance to the Hall of Nations of the United Nations in New York. On 23rd of September, the so called president of Iran on his fifth visit to the general assembly passed the same entrance to address the leaders of the world. However, his audience as well as hundreds of protesters outside the UN and millions of Iranian in Iran who know this poem believe that he has no sympathy for human pain. On his arrival at the UN, he faced the pictures of young political dissident who were killed during the post-election crisis either inside the prisons or in the heat of the demonstrations. Their bodies were sold to their families by the authorities while they were forbidden from observing the usual religious rituals. Many of young detainees were subjected to horrific experiences inside the detention centres and the politicians who took up the cudgels for them were accused of treason and acting against the national security. Since the 12th of June, midnight arrests, solitary cells, forced confession, torture, rape and killing have only been part of the appalling behaviour of the Iranian regime towards its opponents. Last Wednesday after almost 100 days of governing a society conditioned by violence and repression the head of this regime in his 35-minute speech, covered many issues. His speech included some rather bizarre and very ironic points:

a) He stressed that today the ideas and public opinion should be only determining factors.
b) He repeatedly condemned the despicable form of intimidation and deceit in the name of freedom and democratic practice.
c) He emphasized that the unfair system of thought has reached the end of its road and it is unable to move.
d) He mentioned that it is no longer possible to humiliate a nation and impose double standard.
e) However, at the end he insisted that he won a “large majority” in June election which was “glorious and fully democratic”.

This pattern of denial and deception from a head of state can only continue to baffle anyone who observes the current political situation of Iran. He should, however, know that it is no longer feasible to use this strategy to twist the reality of the present circumstances of the country. The influx of information from inside Iran literally made it possible for the rest of world to comprehend the whole truth. At this crucial period of our age, it is indeed the responsibility of not only the international community at the UN but all human beings to express their sympathy for the pain which had been inflicted by this regime. A free Iran is the great country to be longed for and a great aim to be fought for.

Shahin M

IMPOSTER AT THE UN

IMPOSTER AT THE UN

Provocative, offensive and outrageous are only some of the descriptions for Ahmadinejad’s speeches particularly on the international platforms. After more than three months of political turmoil inside the country, Ahmadinejad will make another rhetorical speech at the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday 23rd of September. The intention is not only to show the leaders of the world that the political unrest at home has not weakened him but he has a full package of resolutions for global problems. He has even declared his readiness for a televised debate with Obama at the UN in order to address the roots of today’s global dilemmas; similar requests were rejected before by the White House as propaganda.

In his latest press conference, Ahmadinejad admitted that he was proud to stoke international outrage with his remarks denying the Holocaust. Interestingly, the main purpose of this Ahmadinejad’s style of speech is twofold:

a) Delivering controversial and outrageous speeches give an opportunity to Ahamdinjad to overshadow far more important domestic and international issues about Iran. By calling the Holocaust a myth, he can divert the eyes of the world from breaching human rights in Iran as well as the nuclear dossier. Otherwise, he would have to answer the international press at the UN about what happened in the secret detention centers to the young political dissidents. The detainees who were accused of acting against national security when they just questioned the credibility of the presidential election. He definitely has more to say about the right of Palestinian to live in the free society than Iranians who claim their right to choose their own president

b) Ironically, making foreign enemies is another pleasant dream for the one who gives these kinds of speeches. Having created these “foreign enemies” Ahmadinejad and his team can easily blame Iranian political opponents for being the “enemies” fifth column. This fabricated association paves the way to implicate political opponents in an inexcusable act of treason for which they should and will be punished.

Although this Wednesday the world once again has to listen to Ahmadinejad’s speech; a vague litany of platitudes with no concrete reasoning, his position as a president is no longer tenable. He is not representing Iran at the UN, he is in fact representing small minority of narrow minded and dogmatic politicians who are willing to sacrifice the national interest of the country just to hold on to power. The willingness to negotiate with the United States at this particular time is another pathetic strategy from a conning self-deluded politician.

Shahin M

FOLLOWING THE GREEN BANNER

FOLLOWING THE GREEN BANNER

Form the regime’s prospective it was all over. After three months of intimidation, arrests, show trial, torture, rape and killing, the government was fairly sure that it had regained control of the situation. The regime’s annual display of solidarity with the Palestinians held on the last Friday in Ramadan was an auspicious occasion for the regime to draw a line under all the controversy around the disputed election on 12th of June. However, the reality proved otherwise. Thousands of demonstrators with green banners and wearing green clothes took to the streets of Tehran and all major cities across the country. Despite all the preemptive efforts of the government, people created one of the most courageous demonstrations during the last three months. The magnificent presence of the crowd instantly echoed through the whole world. All the international news channels broadcast the footages of the people shouting “death to the dictator” and marching through central Tehran despite the heavy presence of the regime’s security forces.

During the last three months, the government has clearly underestimated the importance of the new ways of communication among its opponents. The social networks such as Facebook, Twitter and Friendfeed are the websites in which all the dissidents constantly exchange their ideas and opinion and harmonize their anti-governmental activities. This phenomenon, unprecedented in the political history of Iran, is literally breaking the backbone of Ahmadinejad’s government. In a desperate act in an attempt to drown out the voice of the people, Ahmadinejad for the second time in less than a month decided to use the Friday prayers as a platform to make another speech. He, who has a global reputation for making controversial speeches, once again questioned the Nazi Holocaust and claimed that the incident was designed to justify the existence of Israel. However, the diligent demonstrators, with their mobile phones, who were not far from Tehran University succeeded in engraving another historic day in the memory of the political life of Iran. The video footages recorded by these people sent a strong message to the rest of the world that today is neither about Palestinians in the Occupied Territories, nor about people in Gaza. Today is about people who have been deprived of basic human rights in their own country by their own government. Today is about ordinary Iranian people in the streets of this country who want their own rights before fighting for the rights of others. Gaza can wait and so can Palestinians.

Shahin M

SHIMMERING MIRAGE

SHIMMERING MIRAGE

The Supreme Leader of Iran once again make the most of the Friday pray’s platform to give his own vision about the future of the regime. In the first part of the sermon Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave an explicit description about how Shia’s fist Imam, Ali, dealt with his opponents. He explained how patient and understanding Ali was with his enemies. However, he said, Ali eradicated all of his opponents when he found them determined to threaten the very existence of Islam. Giving the present situation in Iran and with this comparison, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s intention was to send a strong but blunt message to his own opponents. There are, however, a few points in this apparently simple analogy which are missing. First and the foremost, there is no characteristic resemblance between the Shia’s first Imam and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the circumstances are absolutely different. In the aftermath of the disputed election, all the members of the opposition along side with ordinary people were systematically prosecuted, tortured and then taken to the court. None was threatening the principals of Islam and presenting such a comparison is either due to delusional grandeur of the Supreme Leader or meant to mislead the public. The approach of the regime and the position taken by the Supreme Leader himself showed no sense of understanding and tolerance towards people who were only concerned about the credibility of the presidential election.

In the second part of the sermon the Supreme Leader divided government’s opponents into those who have remained inside the regime and those who have chosen to be outsiders and then he accused them of acting in their own vested interest. However, he clearly failed to explain the basis of this categorization. As far as the leaders of government’s opponents are concerned, they have been part of the establishment for the last 30 years and believe in Islam and the Constitution. Therefore, this dividing line drawn by the Supreme Leader is being used as a pretext to repress those who dare to raise their voice against the regime.

His lack of political insight became obvious when he exemplified the global acceptance of the regime by saying that people in a café house in remote part of North Africa cheer up the Iranian football team while they watch the match on T.V. This idea of replacing the passion of football with the world wide political support for the Iranian regime is the most ridiculous example he could have ever mentioned in his sermon.

The present dispute in Iran is neither about the election nor about the credibility of Ahmadinejad’s government. The present dispute is about injustice. In the aftermath of the election according to the government’s official figures about 4000 people were arrested. It has been confirmed that more than 80 people were killed and their relatives were banned from observing the religious rituals. There are many unidentified graves in the cemetery which are matter of great concern for families with missing individuals. The issue of overcrowded and secret detention center in which detainees were systematically tortured, beaten and raped was so scandalous that the Supreme Leader was forced to order its closure. These are some of too many examples of the injustice of this Islamic government which according to the Supreme Leader has a strong resemblance to Shia’s fist Imam’s way of governing the nation. Despite all this evidence, his illusory and unattainable vision for the future of the regime became even clearer when he predicted the huge turn out in the next general election.

The striking point at the end of his sermon was when he warned everyone to be vigilant about those who will attend the International Jerusalem Day (Rooze jahaniye Qods). The event is observed in Iran on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan as a day of support for Palestinians and opposition against Israel. This year it falls on 18th of September. Ayatollah Khamenei was clearly anxious that there should be no misuse of the event. The opposition forces are intending to use this opportunity to demonstrate and express their anger regarding the post-election events while legally there should be no constraints or restriction against them. It is ironic that during the last 30 years the regime, weeks before the event, used to urge all Iranian to take to the streets on this day. However, this year’s International Jerusalem Day is already proving to be problematic.

The Supreme Leader in his latest appearance as the Friday Imam seemed to be a broken man who could see many irreversible mistakes. He did not appear as one who has a vision for the country; all he could see was a shimmering mirage in an expanding desert of ignorance.

Shahin M

I HAVE A DREAM

I HAVE A DREAM

I have a dream of an Iran where people have every right to choose their leaders.
I have a dream of a nation that can live freely and not be terrorized if they hold their leaders accountable.
I have a dream of a prosperous Iran in which there is no sign of poverty and destitution.
I have a dream of one day no father will have to sell his kidney to send his son to the university.
Oh I have a dream of an Iranian mother who will not have to sell her body to feed her children.
I have a dream of one day Iran will regain its pride and glory.
I have a dream of one day people can just cast their ballot papers knowing that it matters to the regime.
I have a dream of an Iran in which none will be beaten to death if wanted to speak out.
I have a dream of a country without secret, overcrowded detention centers.
I have a dream of one day no brother and sister will have to go through the endless pictures of dead bodies to find their fathers.
I have a dream that one day no mother will have to search for the body of her beloved teenager in a remote cold storage room.
I have a dream that one day no father will have to pay for the bullets which killed his son.
I have a dream that one day no family will have to moan for their children who were unjustly taken away from them.

I have a dream that one day no innocent girl will have to remind herself of what went on in the darkness of that cell.

Oh I have a dream today.

This is an Iranian dream. This is our dream. It is about a free country in which we can celebrate our victory against bad and evil.

Let us pray for our freedom, for our dream.

Shahin M

FATWA...

FATWA …

In 1975 a group of human rights activists from Belgium visited the notorious Evin prison in Tehran. Their mission was to investigate the alleged cases of torture by the Iranian security forces. Amongst the inmates there was a middle aged cleric who was sentenced to 10 years imprisonment for acting against the national security and helping the Islamic movement. The main question asked by the group was whether there was any mistreatment or torture experienced by the prisoners. In the presence of the prison guards and the security servicemen the majority of the detainees kept silent or denied any torture. However, when the middle aged cleric was asked the same question, he replied in English “I can not answer this question.” The response was short, simple but subtle. After 35 years Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri is still outspoken and the main critic of the Islamic Republic’s domestic and foreign policy. In 1997 after openly criticizing the authority of the Supreme Leader he was placed under house arrest for five years. The growing concerns about his health and the pressure from national and international scholars finally forced the regime to lift the ban.

Monatazeri’s approach towards Islam as a senior theologian with many supporters across the country is based on an understanding of Islam as a religion which can be part of people’s daily life in 21st century. This approach is far from hostility and animosity towards other religions, races and nations. He, for example issued a statement in support of the Baha’is who lives in Iran; “they are the citizens of this country; they have the right of citizenship and live in this country. Furthermore, they must benefit from the Islamic compassion which is stressed in Quran and by the religious authorities.”

During the last four years Montazeri has openly decried Ahmadinejad’s government and its performance regarding the economy, public spending and especially human rights. On 25th of August his theological opinion was sought about the importance of public acceptance in the credibility and legitimacy of the person who rules the Islamic nation (The Supreme Leader). Montazeri’s response was crystal clear; He said that people’s desire to choose their leaders is prominent in Islam. He also said even the prophet and his direct descendents never governed the nation unless they had the full support of their people. In his latest public statement in response to the letter written by 293 of the Iranian intellectuals, he condemned the mistreatment of the detained demonstrators. He strongly demanded the immediate release of all political prisoners and urged the authorities to stop the show trials and forced confessions. Moreover, for the first time since the revolution he addressed a very critical issue when he asked the authorities to have the courage to say that this regime neither is Islamic nor a Republic. The salient point in his argument is that the sequence of the post-election events mirrors a totalitarian regime which treats the majority of its people as second-class citizens. People are systematically prosecuted if they call the government into question about the credibility of the election. The post-election detainees are paraded inside the court room in front of the camera in order to be humiliated and then forced to admit their so called treacherous intentions to topple the regime. This government’s “portfolio” certainly does not remind anyone of an Islamic or Republic government let alone the Grand Ayatollah who is rightly one of the founders of this regime.

During the last two weeks the increasing presence of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri as well as the hunger of the people to seek his advice indicates a significant point which is the desire for a leader. Giving the gravity of the situation, a heavy weight religious leader like Montazeri could not only mobilize and motivate all the opposition groups but could also raise the stakes for the government. His final word as a Fatwa in order to oppose the regime in anyway could endanger the very existence of the Iranian government. Whether or when the ayatollah decides to use his discretion remains to be seen.

Shahin M

“SOMETHING OF THE NIGHT “ABOUT HIM

“SOMETHING OF THE NIGHT “ABOUT HIM

In the seventh decade of his life, now Khamenei faces the biggest challenge since he took over the Supreme Leader’s office. After giving the notorious sermon on 19th of June, when he directly blamed the foreign powers for conspiring against the Islamic regime now he demonstrated a U-turn in his latest speech. He admitted that there is no proof that the opposition leaders blamed for the post-election unrest were agents of the foreign powers. While a number of senior opposition figures (including the employee of the British Embassy in Tehran) are currently on trial accused of conspiring with foreign powers, this speech not only contradicts his previous sermon but dismisses one of the most important charges against the defendants. His latest speech clearly is an intervention in an already tainted judicial process as well as an unsuccessful attempt to reduce the tension. The move was also seen as a partial retreat against wave of criticisms from the senior clerics in Iran. The speech was made the day after the forth session of the show trial which was planned to intimidate the opposition as well as stabilizing the post-election turmoil. However, neither the trial nor the speech is the solution to the Supreme Leader’s problem.

Since January 2007 when Khamenei had not been seen in public for some weeks, his health as well as his potential successor has been called into question. Khamenei has six children. His second son, Mojtaba Khamenei is reported to be his father’s choice to succeed him as the Supreme Leader. Mojtabe, however, lacks the religious and political stature to overcome the opposition from the senior clerics in the Assembly of Experts. Having said that, the ultra-conservative young Khamenei operates tucked behind an elaborate security structure. These brutal forces include Iran’s Revolutionary Guard corps, plain clothes security servicemen and Basiji militiamen. This combination gives Mojtaba an immense power to eradicate any form of opposition. In fact, Mojtaba played a leading role in orchestrating Ahmadinejad’s disputed election victory on 12th of June and also led the backlash against protesters by using his own secret army. The young reclusive cleric has by no means been far from the controversy. Mojtaba is widely believed to control huge financial assets inside and outside of Iran. On 18th of June (only six days after the election) the British government, in accordance with UN and EU sanctions, froze nearly £1bn in Iranian assets. Although Mojtaba’s name does not appear on the Treasury’s list of targets of those sanctions, but one British official said the Supreme Leader’s son may operate through state-run enterprises that are listed. “I would be amazed if some of the money was not his,” the official said.

Having won the presidential election, the axis of Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, Mojtaba are in a quandary how to stabilize the country. The followings are some of the reasons which may have forced the Supreme Leader to prepare the public opinion for another stratagem:


a) The Supreme Leader has lost his reputation as an impartial leader because of endorsing the disputed results of the election. Therefore he desperately needs to regain his unbiased position in order to be able to reduce the tension.

b) The crackdown on the protestors by Mojtaba and his security servicemen proved to be only partially successful. The situation has become even worse since the revelation about the torture, rape and killing of the young detainees inside the prison.

c) The tension between Ahmadinejad and the parliament is going to be heightened if cabinet nominees are given a vote of no confidence which in turn would compound the existing problems.

d) The show trial did neither prepare the ground to arrest the main leaders of the opposition nor intimidated the general public. Therefore, people are looking for an opportunity to demonstrate their anger against the regime. Any religious or national event is a potential threat to galvanize the demonstrators to take to the streets.

Giving the content of Khamenei’s latest speech it seems that the Supreme Leader and his prince of darkness may have reached this conclusion that now it is the time to have a strategic retreat.

For while the tale of how we suffer and what we would have to sacrifice and how we may triumph, is the only tale which must be heard. There is not any other story to tell. When the powers of darkness are aligned against us, it is our light, not their darkness which is more frightening.


Shahin M

THAT NIGHT, A GREEN FOREST GREW

THAT NIGHT, A GREEN FOREST GREW

Everything started on that particular summer night, the 12th of June, when the Iranian regime decided to betray the vast majority of its own people. On that night something remarkable was about to happen. Those who were heavily involved in their vicious plot were unable to see the grave consequence of their actions. They thought, they have envisaged all the possibilities and they were prepared to sacrifice everything in order to fulfill their dream. However, there were green shoots of a future forest growing in front of their very eyes and they could neither see nor wanted to believe in what was happening. The germinating seeds of this forest were planted a long time ago, when the regime had lost touch with people at the grass-roots level. It happened when the regime had decided to ignore the basic of human rights and the dignity of human being. The forest was growing fast and it was too late to stop it. Therefore, the regime made another mistake, the most belligerent axe men were sent to grind the whole forest down. What a monumental and impossible task!

The unprecedented civil right movement of the Iranian people has been criticized because of lack of leadership; a leadership with clear ideas, techniques and goals to serve as a guide to the nation. However, contrary to how it appears, the campaign against the disputed election has a unique characteristic which distinguishes it from all other similar movements. In this uphill struggle, every single person has a unique opportunity to organize, command and lead at the same time. By using modern ways of communication the rules of engagement are discussed, criticized and then finalized and are ready to be implemented. It is unbelievable how well orchestrated some of these demonstrations have been during the last couple of months by using this technique. Unlike the velvet revolutions in the former Republic of Soviet Union, this campaign is totally home grown and independent from foreign powers. History will hail this campaign as an exceptional one with unprecedented success.

Having said all that, this campaign is a tenacious movement and it is crucial that it remains so. The indestructible spirit of this campaign has so far been the key to success, therefore it is imperative to keep this spirit alive and create a united front against the regime. This is absolutely essential to overcome this bitter sense of disappointment by believing in what we can achieve with the sentiments of unity. We should all remember that the tree is more than first a seed, then a stem, then a living trunk and then a chopped off timber by the axe man. The tree is a slow, enduring force straining to win the sky.

Shahin M

TALK ABOVE A WHISPER

TALIK ABOVE A WHISPER

According to the Articles 5 and 111 of the Iranian Constitution being just and pious are the most important qualities of the Supreme Leader. Should he becomes incapable of meeting his constitutional characteristics, he will be dismissed. These Articles among a few others are the foundation of an anonymous letter written by a group of Iranian clerics demanding the Assembly of Experts to dismiss the Supreme Leader. The move is the latest and perhaps strongest blow to the Supreme Leader’s reputation in the aftermath of the disputed election on 12th of June. Giving the anonymous nature of the letter, its authenticity as well as its effectiveness is in question. However, the letter indicates the vulnerability of someone who has been untouchable for many years. The synergistic effect of the letter with the slogans such as “death to Khamenei” recently shouted by Iranians in demonstrations could be the last straw for the Supreme Leader’s authority.

The clerics who wrote the letter decided to practice Taqieh,” Muslims have every right to lie or not to tell the whole truth to deceive their adversaries for expediency.” They also complained about the enormous pressure on clerics to keep them silent in case they would turn the more traditional section of the society against the regime. The clerics found this impossible to disclose their identity because of their fear of Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard and secret services.

The bravery and nobility of the clerics who wrote the letter can not be over stressed because by criticizing the Supreme Leader they have touched one of the most sensitive issues inside the establishment. They have clearly passed the red line which was unimaginable before the events of last few weeks.

For the last two months, the whole world has been watching the brutality of the Iranian regime against its own people. The harsh crackdown on the street protests, mass trial, forced confession, torture, rape and killing were all witnessed by viewers around the world. It is the Iranian people who have been shouldering the responsibility of this campaign. The mothers who have lost their loved ones and still looking for justice, the fathers who lost their children in the cemetery and days after had to bury them in the same place, these are the people who are under enormous pressure. For those prisoners who would have to suffer from the post traumatic disorder for the rest of their lives the meaning of the pressure is more than just a feeling. Those boys and girls who were savagely been raped in the darkness of solitary confinement surely deserve more than an anonymous letter. May be and just may be it is not a good time to practice Taqieh. These people definitely need action and they need it now. Tomorrow is too late.

Shahin M

DARE TO MAKE A CHOICE

Dare to make a choice

At last somebody has decided to be different when all around him are seeking conformity. Mehdi Karroubi unlike the other defeated opposition candidates ventured to be the voice of the political dissidents to reveal the truth of events inside the prisons. He set up a new and greater challenge for the regime when his fellow politicians are procrastinating. He claimed that some of the protestors arrested after June’s disputed election were tortured to death while in custody. The new allegation came after he had said a number of prisoners, both male and female, had been raped. It seems that Karroubi is determined to keep fighting when all around him are remaining silent. After Ahmadinejad’s inauguration ceremony, Karroubi’s approach towards the election has slightly changed. He has decided to keep up the political pressure by focusing on torture and mistreatment of the prisoners in order to undermine the government. The significance of the issue brought forward by Karroubi can not be over emphasized when some ex-MPs are ultimately holding the Supreme Leader responsible. The ex-MPs have asked the Assembly of Experts to investigate whether the Supreme Leader is any longer fit to rule.

Meanwhile the government and its supporters are also mobilizing their power to counter attack Karroubi. Friday Imams across the country in a series of well orchestrated sermons asked the judiciary system to prosecute Karroubi for misleading the public by false allegations. The Friday Imam in Tehran said Karroubi’s claims were “full of libel and a total slander against the Islamic system.”

Karroubi now is experiencing the strong support of the general public like he has never before. The reason behind such a strong support is a sense of hunger for the truth of matter among people. The truth which can potentially subvert the legitimacy, credibility and most importantly the religious authority of the Islamic regime. People of Iran would vehemently question the existence of an Islamic regime which does not observe the basic tenets of Islam such as respect for dignity of every human being. Small wonder that the whole government is in disarray.

The dilemma for the government is either to arrest Karroubi at this particular time and alienate many more ordinary people or refrain from arresting him and face further provocation. In either case the repercussions will be grave and to some extent unpredictable.

Karroubi has clearly demonstrated that he dares to take risks, he has the tenacity to be compassionate and he believes that the courage is the foundation of integrity. Now it is up to the government to make a choice.

Shahin M

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

Yesterday another shocking revelation made my heart sink. The news made me think that the Iranian authorities who claim to be the global leaders of the spiritual path are in fact the most hypocritical religious authorities that the whole world has ever experienced. The defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi in an open letter to Rafsanjani made some distressing allegations. He claimed that some female detainees who were arrested during post-election protests were raped savagely inside the notorious Kahrizak detention center in the south of Tehran. He also mentioned in his letter that “The young boys are also suffering from depression, serious physical and psychological problems as a result of being sexually assaulted inside the prison.

Guantanamo Bay detention camp, Abu Guarib prison and now Kahrizak detention center, these are places where detainees faced terrible and horrific experiences which leave an indelible psychological scar on their soul. For many years the Iranian regime condemned the behavior of the American prison guards inside Guantanamo and Abu Guarib prisons towards so called competent enemies. However, now the regime itself is implicated in a similar situation. The center which was initially built to detain thugs and louts, now is the focus of appalling mistreatment of political dissident. Various news articles have reported on overcrowded cells where prisoners were verbally, physically and sexually assaulted by their guards on a daily basis. Mohsen Ruholamini and Amir Javadifar were two of the many prisoners reported to have died from torture at Kahrizak detention center.

Eventually after the regime had been forced to shut down the detention center, the Iran’s police chief admitted yesterday that the protestors who were arrested after June’s disputed election had been tortured while in custody. In a preposterous and absurd comment he denied any fatality as a result of the torture and claimed that an unspecified “viral illness” had caused the death of some of the prisoners.

These are the people who claim to have a solution for global problems. They claim to become the perfect symbol of the Islamic state for the Muslims around the world. These are the people who claim to have the immaculate religious authority. These people now must be held accountable for their savageness towards the children of this land.

Even if we could not cry out for justice, it would still be inconceivable that so many young Iranians had to die in order to awaken us to their sacrifice. The most precious lives of this land are being lost for the sake of the political and religious ideology of a few single minded demagogues.

This reminds me of the words of Malcolm X, “Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you are a man, you take it.”

Shahin M

CONSPIRACY THEORY ?

CONSPIRACY THEORY ?

The story began when in October 1952 Mohammad Mosaddeq (1882-1967) declared Britain an enemy and cut off all diplomatic relations. Mosaddeq vehemently argued that Iran must begin profiting from its vast oil reserves instead of allowing Britain to exploit this rich resource as it had done for many years. The direct consequence of such a brave policy was that the British and American intelligence services reached the conclusion that the Prime Minister Mosaddeq should be ousted. The plot, known as Operation Ajax was in fact a coup d’état against a democratic, elected and very popular government of Mosaddeq. The coup which was organized and indirectly operated by the CIA and MI6 was in fact the very first chapter of this long story.

The perception of many Iranians about the British and their secret agenda towards Iran may clearly demonstrate in a very famous political satire called My Uncle Napoleon by Iranian author Iraj Pezeshkzad. The British government through out this novel is lampooned for being responsible for any event, no matter how trivial, that occurs in Iran. Apart from the hilarious aspect of this fiction, the story highlights a well accepted general belief amongst Iranians, the British government is a cunning old fox because of its vicious strategic abilities and the fact that it never gives up.

Since the revolution in 1979, the Anglo-Iranian political relationship has just been an emotional roller coaster. A series of dramatic events occurred over many years. These included the closure and reopening of the British embassy in Tehran, the religious edict issued by Khomeini to kill Salman Rushdie, the British government’s role in implementing sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program and the last but not least seizing 15 Royal Navy personnel in the Persian Gulf. All these events indicate a deep and long lasting animosity between two governments. After all perhaps David Miliband made a valid point when he asked the Iranian government and the west not to be imprisoned by their history.

This dramatic story has another twist in its tail. The Iranian authorities have now put the embassy’s chief political analyst, Hossein Rassam on trial in Tehran. Rassam is accused of spying and inciting unrest over Ahmadinejad’s re-election in June. The Foreign Office announced the charges as unjustified and the trial as the latest Iranian provocation which can only bring about further discredit on the regime. As unpredictable as the fate of Hossein Rassam seems to be, there is a striking point here which should not be missed, Rassam is simply a hostage held by the Iranian authorities. The regime is going to use him in order to give the foreign powers a lesson not to cross the red lines which have clearly been identified by the Iranian government. Rassam as a political analyst is clearly not someone, who could by any stretch of the imagination, orchestrate a velvet revolution. Such accusation can only be possible if the prosecutor and the people behind the scene are motivated by the old British conspiracy theory in their minds

This trial, accusation of espionage and an attempt of the British government to promote a velvet revolution in Iran remind me of the words of a former British ambassador in Iran. He said, “Tehran was an interesting place to serve because it is one of the very few places left on earth where people still believe we have some influence.”

Shahin M

SAME DIFFERENCE

SAME DIFFERENCE

This is a photograph which can simply not be forgotten especially for many Iranians. The picture illustrates the seconds before Muhammad Jamal al-Durrah (1988-2000), a 12-year-old Palestinian boy, was shot dead while shielded by his father. This boy quickly became an iconic martyr and a new symbol of the Second Intifada. Iranian state television, however, broadcast the relevant footage of the incident every so often in order to demonstrate the ferocity of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Apart from the controversy over this incident there was one crystal clear issue: the incident happened during a clash between IDF and Palestinian Security Forces in the Gaza Strip, a clash between enemies.

Now the Islamic regime itself faces a similar situation after an Iranian 12-year-old boy was killed last Thursday in the Behesht Zahra cemetery in southern Tehran. Hundreds of thousands of people had gathered for the mourning ceremony of the victims of the recent protests. The riot police and security forces were deployed to the cemetery and started interfering with the religious ritual of the victims’ family. The 12-year-old Ali-Reza had attended the ceremony with his father but lost touch with him in the crowd. Soon after Ali-Reza was hit on the head by a baton of a riot police and died as a result of cerebral hemorrhage. Ali-Reza’s body was released four days later as an attempt to minimize the impact of such a violent crime against humanity. A deliberate attempt to avoid creating another symbol of the resistance against the regime with no sense of compassion.

These stories have a startling likeness to one another. Both of the victims were innocent young boys who had their whole lives in front of them and were beloved by their families. However, the striking point of the second incident is neither Ali-Reza’s age nor the fact that he was an innocent boy. The striking point is that Ali-Reza was killed by a regime that was supposed to protect its citizens. An Islamic regime which was expected to follow the instruction of the Qur’an when it says “if any one slew a person .… it would be as if he slew the whole humanity”. Ali-Reza was slain by a regime which is desperate to hold on the power and is ready to sacrifice the human lives for that. This boy was not on enemy line nor was he caught in the middle of a battle ground. He was an innocent mourner for his fellow compatriots. Ali-Reza became a martyr among many others whose departure puts the Iranian regime to a disgraceful shame.

Shahin M

FFORCED CONFESSION

Now, once again the Iranian regime divided to its very core has decided to assert its power to extract another series of forced confessions under torture in order to stir up the political climate and achieve its pathetic aims. For three decades and almost exactly in the aftermath of every single political challenge faced by the regime, the Iranian people have witnessed very dramatic televised programs. In these not very entreating shows defendants wearing prison uniforms literally denounce all their former political beliefs and comrades. Apparently they are absolutely repentant for what they have done and are desperate to convince their audience about their motives. They are, under extraordinary set of circumstances, driven by so called foreign enemies in order to oust the Islamic regime. The Irony of the situation is that in all the occasions the suspects used to be part of the establishment and had occupied high rank posts.

Sadegh Ghotbzadeh (1936-1982) was probably one of the first people who was implicated in this kind of coercion. He was a close assistant of Khomeini during the revolution. After the Islamic Revolution took power he became the Director of National Radio and Television. He was then appointed as the Foreign Minister before being arrested and accused of plotting the assassination of Khomeini and the overthrow of the Islamic regime. In a series of televised programs he confessed to everything and begged for merci. Ghotbzadeh was executed when the Military Revolutionary Tribunal found him guilty and sentenced him to death.

Mehdi Hashemi, a cleric and a senior official in the Revolutionary Guard was another example of this notorious process of forced confession. After eight months from his arrest, Hashemi produced a taped confession aired on National Television and headlined in newspapers as “I am manifest proof of deviation”. Soon after his confession Hashemi was found guilty by a special clerical court on charges of treason, sedition, murder and related charges. Hashemi was executed even before his guilty verdict was announced.

These above examples were among hundreds of people who were forced to confess during the last thirty years in Iran. This routine practice of the regime is an attempt to bring about necessary benefits:

a) People who confess are easily eliminated because of their crimes and no longer able to endanger the regime.
b) The whole process is a clear demonstration of the power and strength of the regime to eradicate any possible threat.
c) People who may support the suspects are terrorized by the charade and would no longer follow their way.
d) These forced confessions are meant to divert the attention of people from the real obstacles faced by the regime.
e) The most important aim is to run a smear campaign against more prominent comrades of the people who confess. This method in fact enables the government to implicate its high rank political rivals at any given time and in consequence prepare the ground to marginalize or even eliminate them for good.

Last week, 100 people including former Vice President (Mohammad Ali Abtahi), former Deputy Speaker of the Parliament (Behzad Nabavi) and former Deputy Foreign Minster (Mohsen Aminzadeh) were taken to the court in Tehran. The charges included rioting, vandalism and acting against national security. The former Vice President, who could hardly be recognized because of 3 stone weight lost during a month, accepted the charge of treason and told the court that his earlier claims of fraud about the 12th of June election were completely unfounded.

The defendants in their dictated testimonies were trying to blame the main challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi and former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani for directing the mass demonstrations after the election results. They told the court about their premeditated secret plan to carry out a velvet revolution in Iran following the pattern in former Soviet Union Republics. Some of the pro-government senior conservatives have already asked the prosecutor to act swiftly against those who are directing the protests behind the scene. As unprecedented as these events seem, this is crucial for the survival of Ahmadinejad’s government to put an end to this already over long demonstrations and protest at all costs.

These events raise huge questions in people’s minds:

a) Do these engineers of human souls with their Stalinism’s style ever think about their own destiny while they are becoming overly strict authoritarian?
b) Our country is changing and because we should be part of it, do not we have every right to condemn the perpetrators of these shameful events and demand nothing more than justice?
c) How can we ever be able to restore what we have lost?

In memory of those who have been martyred.

Shahin M

ROCKING THE BOAT

ROCKING THE BOAT

The so called re-elected president of Iran sees himself as the one who is destined to change the course of history. He believes that the whole civilization and in particular the American one, will soon come to a tumultuous end with some kind of catastrophic global event. During the last four years he has addressed this point on many occasions in a rhetorical style. He plans to hasten the return of the Islamic messiah by following his vision of the apocalypse. Ahmadinejad’s belief in the 12th Imam’s return is rooted in a radical secret society known as the Hojjatieh, virulently anti-Western, anti-Sunni and committed to the arcane belief; a true Islamic state which can only be realized with the return of the 12th Imam. According to this ideology the 12th descendant of the Prophet Mohammed will save the world from injustice and corruption and it is every Shi’a’s duty to be prepared for such a cataclysmic event. It also maintains that a functioning Islamic government delays the return of the Mahdi. This was one of their basic tenets which challenged Khomeini’s concept of Islamic government, velayat-e faqih (the Guardianship of the Supreme Jurist). This ideology also implies that causing chaos is a necessary requisite for Mahdi’s reappearance. The Hojjatieh Society opposes religious involvement in political affairs, but has set that precept aside when it suits its purpose to subvert the political establishment. It was based on this particular exemption that Hojjatieh played a crucial role in overthrowing the Shah’s regime in 1979. However, after the revolution this clandestine society was dissolved when Khomeini condemned its extreme ideology on 12 August 1983: “Those who believe we should allow sins to increase until the 12th Imam reappears should modify and reconsider their position…if you believe in your country [then] get rid of this factionalism and join the wave that is carrying the nation forward, otherwise it will break you”. The formal end of the Hojjatieh Society did not necessarily mean the end of its role in politics. Although the society entered a period of relative inactivity, at the same time Hojjatieh members gradually penetrated the different layers of the establishment including the Assembly of Experts; a deliberative body of 86 Islamic scholars that is in charge with electing and removing the Supreme Leader of Iran and supervising his activities. After two decades from that time the new assembly’s importance is heightened by the likelihood that it will have to select a new supreme leader during its eight-year term to replace Khamenei. Command of Assembly of Experts is crucial to determining Iran’s future direction and its drive to become the paramount power in the Middle East and a global player.

One of the key members of the Assembly of Experts is Ahmadinejad’s Holy Father and his spiritual mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a deeply conservative cleric with close ties to the Hojjatieh-founded Haggani theological school in Qom. He is reported to be the highest ranking cleric of the Hojjatieh, although he has always denied it. Mesbah Yazdi fought hard to secure his seat in the Assembly of Experts; this key centre of authority in a present power struggle of the regime. He and his followers in the Assembly are increasingly seen as a direct threat to Khamenei’s supremacy.

During his first term in the office, Ahmadinejad chose many members of his cabinet from Haggani graduates and Hojjatieh followers. In fact, the executive branch of the government as well as the large section of the Revolutionary Guard has been hijacked by the ultra-orthodox radicals of the Hojjatieh Society. Another piece of this puzzling jigsaw is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie a controversial figure with strong link with the Hojjatieh Society. The recent conflict between Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader over appointing Mashaie as the new Fist Vice President demonstrates the potential threat from Hojjattie felt by the Supreme Leader. It took more than a week for the president to give way to pressure from the Supreme Leader and dismiss Mashaie and even following Mashaie resignation, Ahamdinejad appointed him as his chief of staff.

The predicament for Ahamdinejad is now fighting on two fronts. On one hand the government’s opponents are still challenging the system in the streets of major cities across the country; on the other hand there is infighting between the radical conservatives with different perceptions of the future establishment. This is not the challenge which could be seen, by any stretch of imagination as the easy one. Whether Ahmadinejad can survive such a confrontation remains to be seen. There are many in Iran who see Ahmadinejad’s re-election as a coup d’état against the nation. However, for Ahmadinejad and his supporters in the radical Hojjatieh Society the reappearance of the 12th Imam is in the offing and they are prepared to rock the boat in spite of everything.


Shahin M

TORNADO ON THE HORIZON

TORNADO ON THE HORIZON

Another Friday pray, another sermon, another earthquake. What happened on 17th of July in Tehran University once again shook the pillars of the Islamic regime in Iran. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani used carefully assembled words in his sermon in order to have a marked impact on the future of the “crisis”. During the last thirty years Rafsanjani managed to remain impartial and was very careful not to associate himself with any political factions of the regime. Rafsanjani has always seen himself as the one who steers the regime through the most difficult crisis by being above the fray. This time, however, he inevitably had to align himself with the demonstrators. In essence, what he said during his sermon was less important than what he did not say. The whole establishment and particularly the supreme leader had expected Rafsanjani to fully support his supremacy and convince the nation that it is in the best interest of the country to accept the result of the election. They hoped he would no longer challenge Ahmadinejad or the disputed election. However, Rafsanjani’s sermon was anything but a remedy for nervous politicians who desperately needed him to calm the situation. His speech, when he suggested an open debate in order to satisfy those who have every reason to be dubious, clearly indicated that the crisis is far from being resolved. Even calling the present situation a crisis was unbearable for the hardliners who have consistently denied such an atmosphere. In what it seems a well orchestrated act of defiance the former president Mohammad khatami only two days after Rafsanjani’s sermon called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the government.

Meanwhile, on the other edge of this unresolved political rift, the supreme leader in his latest speech warned the elite of the regime to be very carful about what they say and more importantly what they do not say. He made it crystal clear that the elite of the regime, no matter how prominent, are being tested; their failure is the beginning of their downfall.

It is obvious that the political division on the highest level of the establishment is increasing. This simultaneous occurrence of political events during the last few days by their very nature indicates an approaching storm which aggravates the situation drastically. The very existence of the regime is at stake. The stakes could not be higher.


Shahin M

A GLIMMER OF HOPE

A GLIMMER OF HOPE

When the infallible supreme leader opened the ballot box.

In Greek mythology when Pandora’s Box was ultimately opened, all of the evils, ills and diseases that beset mankind for ever, escaped from the box, leaving only hope within. This definitely should not have been done.

In the context of theocratic regime such as the Islamic regime in Iran, the country is governed by divine guidance or by the individual (supreme leader) who is regarded as divinely guided. In this ideology the divine power via one individual governs the state and replaces or dominates the civil government. This individual is pure, impeccable and faultless. He enjoys an immaculate reputation given by god. The theocratic regime achieves and gains its authority at the expense of personal belief. This is the kind of regime which is able to manipulate the poor, religious and people at the grass roots level. There are, however, grave repercussions for both the politics which is affected by the religion (a) and vice versa (b).

a) Politicians, like the president of Iran, with only the religious driving force behind them have the best interest of the divine leader in their mind and consequently in their policy. However, there is always a conflict of interest between the supreme leader’s will and people’s desire. One should not be under any illusion about who is going to win this battle of ideas. This scenario becomes even more bewildering when the theocratic regime associates itself with democracy because in democracy, it is the majority of people who choose the whole hierarchy of the establishment and there is no sign of unelected individuals. In fact, democracy and theocracy are two separate theories in the political science and a combination of these is a recipe for disaster.

b) In a theocratic system, there is no distinguishing line between the state law and the religious one. Therefore, government’s opponents do not only find themselves against the political system but also accused of being opposed to God. It is generally accepted that God is merciful and compassionate whereas the theocratic system for its political constraints applies brutal force to eliminate any kind of opposition. This contradiction between gracious God on one hand and the way the theocratic regime treats its opponents on the other hand raises so many questions among people with strong faith in God and it simply undermines people’s belief in the principles of the religion.

The present situation in Iran and its disputed presidential election and the consequent unrest clearly exemplifies this. On one hand, the word of the supreme leader as the divine ruler and his verification of the results of the election must not be challenged by anyone. On the other hand people who dare to defy the supreme leader are confronted by the most belligerent armed forces that are not only defending the establishment but also have the divine mandate to guard the religion. The younger generation who are witnessing these events find themselves under enormous pressure which makes them even more determined to bring about fundamental changes.

This is not the end, this is only the beginning. Pandora’s Box was opened and there is only one good thing remains inside. This one good thing exhorts people in the streets to fight the good fight for their freedom.


Shahin M

SHAKING HANDS WITH THE PUPPET MASTER

Shaking hands with the Puppet Master

According to the American business magazine Forbes, he is the one of the richest people in the world. He has more or less run the Islamic Republic of Iran for the past 30 years. Khomeini’s right hand, pragmatic, ideological, father of Iran’s privatization program and last but not least the grey eminence. These criteria belong to the man most adept at manipulating the hidden power structure of Iran, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. During the last 30 years he has played a crucial role in Iran’s political arena. Key member of Iran’s Revolutionary Council, speaker of the parliament (1980-89), commander-in-chief of the arm forces (1980-88, during the war with Iraq). He was seen as the main mover behind Iran’s acceptance of the UN Security Council resolution which ended the war. He was the president of Iran from 1989 to 1997. In 2002, Rafsanjani was appointed and currently is the Chairman of the Expediency Council that arbitrates and resolves legislative disputes between the Parliament and the Council of Guardians.

Interestingly, in 2002, in the first Parliamentary General Election after the termination of his two presidential terms, he stood for the Parliament seat. He did not succeed to be among the 30 representatives of Tehran. However, The Council of Guardians then ruled numerous ballots “void” and was able to get him chosen as the 30th representative. Nevertheless, he resigned before swearing-in as an MP with the intention of being able to serve the people better in other posts which conveniently appeared as the Chairman of the Expediency Council which make the final decision about the disputed bills from the parliament.

Rafsanjani’s reputation was tinted by so many issues during his political career; the 1998 murders of dissident authors known as the Chain Murders of Iran, his failure to differentiate between privatization and the corrupt takeover of government-owned companies, his deep involvement in various Iranian industries, including the oil industry. There have also been allegations that some of his wealth has come from arms deals made after the revolution.

Rafsanjani family also own vast financial empires in Iran, including foreign trade, vast landholdings and the largest network of private universities in Iran which are known as Azad and these have 300 campuses spread all over the country. They do not only have large financial resources but also an active cadre of student activists numbering around 3 million.


Having said all that, Rafsanjani has had a track record of handling difficult situations and managing crisises. His approach of dealing with delicate political crisises is very subtle. Giving the present situation in Iran, he had expressed his resentment toward Ahmadinejad’s remarks (accusing him and his family of corruption) in an open letter to the supreme leader. He was the prominent supporter of Mousavi, the main challenger of Ahmadinejad. In the post election time and in amid of the demonstrations and the crack down on the protestors, however, he kept a very ominous silence and left the door open for assumptions and speculations about his opinion of the whole situation. He preferred unlike to his old comrade, the supreme leader, to weigh up the situation first and remained above the fray. After days of waiting he made the delicate statement with the well chosen vocabulary. He expressed his concerns about the future of the regime and the system’s long-term interests and advised everyone to find a rational and logical way to solve the disagreements. He hoped with good management and wisdom the issues would be settled. He also expressed his sympathy towards the families of the detainees during the demonstrations. Once more he proved that he is the man of negotiation not the man of principals. The recent event reminds everyone of May 1999; the time that the mayor of Tehran, Gholmhossein Karbaschi appointed and backed by Rafsanjani was unjustly accused of corruption and misuse of funds and began serving a two-year sentence in prison and 10 years suspension of any official post. Rafsanjani was no longer his supporter and rather not to mention his name under any circumstances anymore.

The main question is in the end, who is Hashemi Rafsanjani? What if anything defines him? What is it that makes him so distinguishable from the other clerics? His judgment, his principals and his moral values have always been subject to change. Given the right “price” everything about him is hostage to circumstance. Those people, who hoped he would come to the rescue, now, should ask themselves if there is anything about him which can not be compromised.

Once again the puppet master pulled the strings in order to control what went on beneath him. He used actions in addition to thoughtfully assembled words as his weapons in order to exploit his victims. What he has gained from this battle remains to be seen.


Shahin M

THE HOTTEST SEASON

THE HOTTEST SEASON

It is going to be a long and hot summer in Iran. After days of political turmoil, demonstrations and violence across the country now there is a long pregnant silence. This quiet but bizarre atmosphere could be construed in different ways; as the fire beneath the ashes or the end of another sad Iranian political tragedy. In politics, there is one commodity any government can never have enough of and that is credibility. It certainly goes beyond respect and trust for an individual; it implies a level of confidence in the government’s performance and indeed in almost every circumstance in real life, credibility is not something anyone can gain by deception.

Since the 12th of June and even during the campaign for the presidential election the credibility of the regime in Iran has been in tatters. The statistical information which was provided by Ahaminejad and his team did not match with the perception of the people’s daily lives. Their smear campaign about their rivals did not conform to the cultural and moral values of the voters. The process of the election and the way it was managed or mismanaged seriously raised the possibility of fraud and vote rigging which in turn exacerbated the incredibility of the government. Furthermore, the crack down on the demonstrations, arresting the government’s opponents and using the Iron Fist against the same voters whom they had praised a week before for their participation left absolutely nothing for this government to celebrate.

For more than 30 years none had witnessed millions of demonstrators actively, openly and peacefully defying the whole system of the cleric jurist. The regime realized that it had no option except creating an atmosphere of fear and horror across the country in order to survive. While the whole world was watching, the trust in the Iranian government was completely eroded if not destroyed. Now for the vast majority of Iranian the regime is an illegitimate one and has no political attractiveness. In the course of history, it has been proven that illegitimate governments are bound to fail. It is only matter of when. There is crystal clear evidence that neither the leadership nor the government enjoy the support of the people. The unresolved political rift also is appeared inside the system which is even more devastating for the regime. It is hard to imagine how Ahmadinejad can bridge this gap of credibility over the rigged election and expects not only the nation but also the politicians to support and help him in order to rule the country.

In terms of foreign policy, Iran sees itself as a regional superpower. It has unquestionable influence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Beirut and Palestine. Its cooperation is much needed to stabilize the security in the region. However, this government would have to deal with destabilizing problems due to lack of the credibility at home for the foreseeable future and this makes it unable to play any critical role across the region. The consequence is obviously an isolated regime with too many issues inside the country which in turn affects its reputation abroad. Moreover, the main intention of Ahmadinejad and his team was to win the election with a landslide and more importantly believable majority to strengthen their position in international negotiations such as possible dialog with Obama’s administration, nuclear issues and the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are now suffering a serious illegitimacy problem which affects their authority to deal with domestic issues let alone their international problems.

This long hot summer in Iran has already struck fear in the hearts of the politicians.




Shahin M

AN UPHILL STRUGGLE

AN UPHILL STRUGGLE
The present situation in Iran is a period of political and social upheaval and radical change which is unprecedented in the history of the Islamic regime. This movement might not be succeeding this time but it is certainly changing the equilibrium of forces on the top of the hierarchy of the regime. During the last fortnight, the regime managed to alienate some of the most influential people in the core of system. Interestingly, it did happen in front of the people who had been kept out of the power struggle inside the regime for 30 years. It should not be forgotten that characters like Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mir Hossein Mossavi and Karroubi, all belong to the core of the establishment. People are stunned by the scale of the disagreement across the system. This illustrates the fact that the regime is in a transitional period. The nature of the system is dramatically changing. The republic element of the regime is being ignored or even intended to be wiped off. Those people who are against this new ideology will be known as outsiders.

There are so many theories regarding what is happening inside the establishment. The most likely theory is that, the fundamentalist clerics have decided to change the nature of the regime from an Islamic republic to the extreme form of Islamic regime which gives absolute authority to the religious establishment. There might even be a life time president to run the country according to the policy dictated by the supreme leader. Even if this theory proves inaccurate or wrong, the fact that the regime does not tolerate any kind of criticism and dispute indicates the inclination toward a totalitarian regime. The initial stage of this reality has already been seen in the streets of Tehran or other major cities in Iran. The question is what should be done?

Civil disobedience

Giving the level of brutality of the security services and riot police during the last few days, it is generally accepted that people are now petrified of taking to the streets and demonstrating openly. There are, however, a few brave and very determined young people who are still willing to risk their lives and confront the ferocity of the members of the militia.

Civil disobedience is the active refusal to obey certain laws, demands and commands of a government without resorting to physical violence or even risk one’s life. This has been practised effectively in different parts of the world. In Egypt during 1919 revolution against the British occupation, in India during the campaign for independence from the British Empire, in East Germany to oust their communist dictatorships and so many other places. This technique is generally used when the ruling government shuts down all other possible and obvious routs in front of its opponents. It is interesting that people in Iran have already adopted the technique by going to rooftops and shouting slogans during the night or switching on their car’s headlights during the day. However, this kind of protest must be generalized and become widespread to be really effective.

The enormous pressure which the authorities used during the last 10 days has resulted in increasing the sense of frustration among the general public. People do not change their minds because of repression from the government; they change their strategy instead and adopt new techniques to tackle the problem. Those who were killed, injured and arrested established a milestone which signifies the paramount importance of democracy.

Political sanction

I firmly believe that western countries should send a strong signal to the authorities in Iran not only condemning the violence against its own people but also threatening to down-grade their relationship. The Iranian regime accuses the west of interfering in its affairs anyway. If all the EU countries and the United States unanimously agree to pressurize Iran, they will have the political initiative against the Iranian government. Such a united policy would strengthen the position of the government’s opponents and also highlight the lack of credibility of the regime in the eyes of the international community.

Shahin Motamedi

What is the next move?

What is the next move?

Chess is a game of position. The position of your pieces in relation to your opponent’s pieces is crucial. It is essential that these positions are constantly evaluated according to your long term tactics. Furthermore, the players need to be aware of the value of the pieces. When you make a move, you always have to consider all the possible moves that your opponent might make. If the current crisis in Iran is put in this context, one can make a better assessment of the situation.

Based on the latest statement from Mr. Mir Hossein Mossavi, the government of Mr. Ahmadinejad planned to rig the vote months before the election. If the plan is considered as the first move of this dangerous game from the side of the government, the question is whether it had been assessed properly before being implemented; even so the way the election was handled proves that the government seriously miscalculated the game right from the beginning. This is the evidence:

a) Many of the delegates of the candidates were not allowed to enter the poll centers because they had not received their ID cards from the interior ministry.
b) The existence of 14000 mobile ballot boxes which by the definition were not monitored by the delegates.
c) Although only 45 million people were eligible to vote, 59 million and 600 thousands ballot papers were printed.
d) The ballot boxes were already sealed before the arrival of candidates’ delegates early in morning of the Election Day.
e) The results were announced three hours after the closing time. This means that more than 45 million votes were counted in three hours!

The government did not consider the possible move of its opponent. Ahmadinejad and his team for the first three days simply could not believe the reaction from their rival candidates, let alone the massive number of people in the streets of the capital which clearly outnumbered the security services and riot police.

In a capricious move, the government decided to arrest many political dissidents and increase the number of the security servicemen and move some of the pawns to confront the demonstrators. These pawns are expendable and have the lowest theoretical value in this battle. The savageness and brutality of these repugnant agents of the government are beyond belief. However, the consequence of this move was more protestors in the streets and more violence.

The notorious speech from the supreme leader can be counted as the next move. It was aimed to give the full authority to the government to eradicate the demonstrators. It was a combination of threat and ultimatum. However, the day he made that speech it was the day he entered the fray on the side of Ahmadinejad, obviously not a very good move after all. In the final move the government decided to put the blame on foreign countries, in particular the UK. This move by its very nature is a desperate one, unfounded and preposterous.

For the regime in Iran the stake could not be higher and the possibility of the checkmate is on the horizon.

Shahin M

IRON FIST

IRON FIST



In colloquial English, an "Iron Fist" refers to the authority exerted by a powerful, unforgiving governing figure. The supreme leader of Iran today fiercely warned and criticized those people who lead, participate, and even support the recent demonstrations against the result of the last week presidential election. Although he tried to reconcile the key figures of the dispute, he particularly said the opposition leaders would be held responsible if there was any further violence in the street. He gave full support to Mr. Ahmadi nejad and praised him for his service during the last four years. He threatened if the demonstrators did not leave the streets there would be very serious consequences.

This confrontational pattern of behavior is not unprecedented from the authorities of Iran. However, none of the political analysts expected such a harsh response from the spiritual leader of Iran. They did however predict he would support ahmadi nejad and call for calm until the Council of Guardians had investigated the complaints. The speech even by the regime’s standards was the most aggressive reaction anyone could have expected.

The reason behind such a reaction is that the supreme leader understands the real threat which has shaken the foundation of the regime; the recent events in Iran remind everyone including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of the initial stages of the Islamic Revolution 30 years ago. He knows the rifts and divisions in the heart of the establishment compound the crisis. Therefore, there was a crucial need for him as the supreme leader to send a blunt and uncompromising message.

In fact, he said everything he could have said to draw a line and start a new chapter. He of course blamed the foreign powers for interfering and made the link between the enemies and lawbreakers. He has thrown the ball into the court of oppositions. Now it is their turn and particularly their leaders to either back down or stand up and continue to protest. In the light of this speech, the latter would result in a massive crack-down from the side of the regime. However, if they decide to call the demonstrations off, they would certainly damage their own reputation and bring huge disappointment among their supporters.

The “Iron Fist” is revealed; the velvet glove is off. The speech is a double edged- sword. Although it has terrifying potential for those who are still dissatisfied and feel betrayed with the outcome of the election, it can aggravate the situation and actually widen the gap inside the governing body of the regime.




The search of the Iranian people for justice and freedom continues.

Shahin M

Crisis mangement

Crisis management

Crisis management by the definition is the process by which a system deals with any major unpredictable event that threatens to harm the system. Three elements are common to most definitions of crisis: (a) a threat to the organization, (b) the element of surprise, and (c) a short decision time. Crisis in Iran is not an exception from the above elements.

a) It certainly imposes serious threats against the core of the regime. It has effectively undermined the credibility and the virtue of the republic of the system. Outside of Iran it has damaged the reputation of the Islamic republic of Iran, particularly among Islamic nations.

b) The regime might have expected some opposition after of the announcement of the results. However, it was certainly surprised by the scale of the demonstration.

c) This is the most important element in this crisis like any other crisis. For many years the regime tried to manage the effect of information technology inside Iran. All the internet service providers are registered by the government. The mobile network companies are either totally or partially governmental therefore the government has direct influence on how and when they operate. The government is effectively equipped to jam the satellite waves and prevent the general public from listening to the outside radio and watching the satellite television. Having said that, the Iranian government did not pace itself with the advances in information technology. For the very reason and despite the latest decision about banding the foreign reporters from the streets of Tehran, there are still influx of information from inside of Iran including video footages, pictures and the news updates. In fact this way of communication has hindered the efforts of the ruling system to control the situation on the ground. Modern technology has not only strengthened the element of surprise but also has shortened the decision time for the security services to deal with demonstrations at the different part of a mega city like Tehran.


The government of Iran has its own strategy to solve this problem

Ι. Crisis, what crisis? Mr. Ahamadi nejad during his first press conference after the announcement of the results tried to scale down the severity of the problem. He compared his political opponents to the losers of a football match but also accused them of passing the red light so deserving to be arrested. We should not make the mistake of thinking this is a denial of the reality of the situation but is rather a conning strategy to attempt to manage the crisis.

ΙΙ. Smear campaign: The state television fed the general public with reports about the hooligans who vandalized banks, cars and public properties. It therefore minimized the amount of support the demonstrators had.

ΙΙΙ. Carrot & stick: From one hand the supreme leader and the guardian council offered limited compromises regarding recount of the votes and dealing with opponents' complaints, on the other hand the riot police and militia groups stormed the dormitories, university campuses and charged the demonstrators with ferocity and brutality. At the same time the supreme leader asked the demonstrators to calm down and let the guardian council deal with the problem in a peaceful atmosphere.


So far the crowd in the streets of Tehran and other major cities across the country emboldened by their million-strong march on Monday demonstrate their total refusal to accept any compromise. It is crucially important to be aware of the strategic retreat by the government in the coming days which is to calm the situation first and then clamp down on the opposition completely.

Shahin M