ROCKING THE BOAT

ROCKING THE BOAT

The so called re-elected president of Iran sees himself as the one who is destined to change the course of history. He believes that the whole civilization and in particular the American one, will soon come to a tumultuous end with some kind of catastrophic global event. During the last four years he has addressed this point on many occasions in a rhetorical style. He plans to hasten the return of the Islamic messiah by following his vision of the apocalypse. Ahmadinejad’s belief in the 12th Imam’s return is rooted in a radical secret society known as the Hojjatieh, virulently anti-Western, anti-Sunni and committed to the arcane belief; a true Islamic state which can only be realized with the return of the 12th Imam. According to this ideology the 12th descendant of the Prophet Mohammed will save the world from injustice and corruption and it is every Shi’a’s duty to be prepared for such a cataclysmic event. It also maintains that a functioning Islamic government delays the return of the Mahdi. This was one of their basic tenets which challenged Khomeini’s concept of Islamic government, velayat-e faqih (the Guardianship of the Supreme Jurist). This ideology also implies that causing chaos is a necessary requisite for Mahdi’s reappearance. The Hojjatieh Society opposes religious involvement in political affairs, but has set that precept aside when it suits its purpose to subvert the political establishment. It was based on this particular exemption that Hojjatieh played a crucial role in overthrowing the Shah’s regime in 1979. However, after the revolution this clandestine society was dissolved when Khomeini condemned its extreme ideology on 12 August 1983: “Those who believe we should allow sins to increase until the 12th Imam reappears should modify and reconsider their position…if you believe in your country [then] get rid of this factionalism and join the wave that is carrying the nation forward, otherwise it will break you”. The formal end of the Hojjatieh Society did not necessarily mean the end of its role in politics. Although the society entered a period of relative inactivity, at the same time Hojjatieh members gradually penetrated the different layers of the establishment including the Assembly of Experts; a deliberative body of 86 Islamic scholars that is in charge with electing and removing the Supreme Leader of Iran and supervising his activities. After two decades from that time the new assembly’s importance is heightened by the likelihood that it will have to select a new supreme leader during its eight-year term to replace Khamenei. Command of Assembly of Experts is crucial to determining Iran’s future direction and its drive to become the paramount power in the Middle East and a global player.

One of the key members of the Assembly of Experts is Ahmadinejad’s Holy Father and his spiritual mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a deeply conservative cleric with close ties to the Hojjatieh-founded Haggani theological school in Qom. He is reported to be the highest ranking cleric of the Hojjatieh, although he has always denied it. Mesbah Yazdi fought hard to secure his seat in the Assembly of Experts; this key centre of authority in a present power struggle of the regime. He and his followers in the Assembly are increasingly seen as a direct threat to Khamenei’s supremacy.

During his first term in the office, Ahmadinejad chose many members of his cabinet from Haggani graduates and Hojjatieh followers. In fact, the executive branch of the government as well as the large section of the Revolutionary Guard has been hijacked by the ultra-orthodox radicals of the Hojjatieh Society. Another piece of this puzzling jigsaw is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie a controversial figure with strong link with the Hojjatieh Society. The recent conflict between Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader over appointing Mashaie as the new Fist Vice President demonstrates the potential threat from Hojjattie felt by the Supreme Leader. It took more than a week for the president to give way to pressure from the Supreme Leader and dismiss Mashaie and even following Mashaie resignation, Ahamdinejad appointed him as his chief of staff.

The predicament for Ahamdinejad is now fighting on two fronts. On one hand the government’s opponents are still challenging the system in the streets of major cities across the country; on the other hand there is infighting between the radical conservatives with different perceptions of the future establishment. This is not the challenge which could be seen, by any stretch of imagination as the easy one. Whether Ahmadinejad can survive such a confrontation remains to be seen. There are many in Iran who see Ahmadinejad’s re-election as a coup d’état against the nation. However, for Ahmadinejad and his supporters in the radical Hojjatieh Society the reappearance of the 12th Imam is in the offing and they are prepared to rock the boat in spite of everything.


Shahin M

TORNADO ON THE HORIZON

TORNADO ON THE HORIZON

Another Friday pray, another sermon, another earthquake. What happened on 17th of July in Tehran University once again shook the pillars of the Islamic regime in Iran. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani used carefully assembled words in his sermon in order to have a marked impact on the future of the “crisis”. During the last thirty years Rafsanjani managed to remain impartial and was very careful not to associate himself with any political factions of the regime. Rafsanjani has always seen himself as the one who steers the regime through the most difficult crisis by being above the fray. This time, however, he inevitably had to align himself with the demonstrators. In essence, what he said during his sermon was less important than what he did not say. The whole establishment and particularly the supreme leader had expected Rafsanjani to fully support his supremacy and convince the nation that it is in the best interest of the country to accept the result of the election. They hoped he would no longer challenge Ahmadinejad or the disputed election. However, Rafsanjani’s sermon was anything but a remedy for nervous politicians who desperately needed him to calm the situation. His speech, when he suggested an open debate in order to satisfy those who have every reason to be dubious, clearly indicated that the crisis is far from being resolved. Even calling the present situation a crisis was unbearable for the hardliners who have consistently denied such an atmosphere. In what it seems a well orchestrated act of defiance the former president Mohammad khatami only two days after Rafsanjani’s sermon called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the government.

Meanwhile, on the other edge of this unresolved political rift, the supreme leader in his latest speech warned the elite of the regime to be very carful about what they say and more importantly what they do not say. He made it crystal clear that the elite of the regime, no matter how prominent, are being tested; their failure is the beginning of their downfall.

It is obvious that the political division on the highest level of the establishment is increasing. This simultaneous occurrence of political events during the last few days by their very nature indicates an approaching storm which aggravates the situation drastically. The very existence of the regime is at stake. The stakes could not be higher.


Shahin M

A GLIMMER OF HOPE

A GLIMMER OF HOPE

When the infallible supreme leader opened the ballot box.

In Greek mythology when Pandora’s Box was ultimately opened, all of the evils, ills and diseases that beset mankind for ever, escaped from the box, leaving only hope within. This definitely should not have been done.

In the context of theocratic regime such as the Islamic regime in Iran, the country is governed by divine guidance or by the individual (supreme leader) who is regarded as divinely guided. In this ideology the divine power via one individual governs the state and replaces or dominates the civil government. This individual is pure, impeccable and faultless. He enjoys an immaculate reputation given by god. The theocratic regime achieves and gains its authority at the expense of personal belief. This is the kind of regime which is able to manipulate the poor, religious and people at the grass roots level. There are, however, grave repercussions for both the politics which is affected by the religion (a) and vice versa (b).

a) Politicians, like the president of Iran, with only the religious driving force behind them have the best interest of the divine leader in their mind and consequently in their policy. However, there is always a conflict of interest between the supreme leader’s will and people’s desire. One should not be under any illusion about who is going to win this battle of ideas. This scenario becomes even more bewildering when the theocratic regime associates itself with democracy because in democracy, it is the majority of people who choose the whole hierarchy of the establishment and there is no sign of unelected individuals. In fact, democracy and theocracy are two separate theories in the political science and a combination of these is a recipe for disaster.

b) In a theocratic system, there is no distinguishing line between the state law and the religious one. Therefore, government’s opponents do not only find themselves against the political system but also accused of being opposed to God. It is generally accepted that God is merciful and compassionate whereas the theocratic system for its political constraints applies brutal force to eliminate any kind of opposition. This contradiction between gracious God on one hand and the way the theocratic regime treats its opponents on the other hand raises so many questions among people with strong faith in God and it simply undermines people’s belief in the principles of the religion.

The present situation in Iran and its disputed presidential election and the consequent unrest clearly exemplifies this. On one hand, the word of the supreme leader as the divine ruler and his verification of the results of the election must not be challenged by anyone. On the other hand people who dare to defy the supreme leader are confronted by the most belligerent armed forces that are not only defending the establishment but also have the divine mandate to guard the religion. The younger generation who are witnessing these events find themselves under enormous pressure which makes them even more determined to bring about fundamental changes.

This is not the end, this is only the beginning. Pandora’s Box was opened and there is only one good thing remains inside. This one good thing exhorts people in the streets to fight the good fight for their freedom.


Shahin M

SHAKING HANDS WITH THE PUPPET MASTER

Shaking hands with the Puppet Master

According to the American business magazine Forbes, he is the one of the richest people in the world. He has more or less run the Islamic Republic of Iran for the past 30 years. Khomeini’s right hand, pragmatic, ideological, father of Iran’s privatization program and last but not least the grey eminence. These criteria belong to the man most adept at manipulating the hidden power structure of Iran, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. During the last 30 years he has played a crucial role in Iran’s political arena. Key member of Iran’s Revolutionary Council, speaker of the parliament (1980-89), commander-in-chief of the arm forces (1980-88, during the war with Iraq). He was seen as the main mover behind Iran’s acceptance of the UN Security Council resolution which ended the war. He was the president of Iran from 1989 to 1997. In 2002, Rafsanjani was appointed and currently is the Chairman of the Expediency Council that arbitrates and resolves legislative disputes between the Parliament and the Council of Guardians.

Interestingly, in 2002, in the first Parliamentary General Election after the termination of his two presidential terms, he stood for the Parliament seat. He did not succeed to be among the 30 representatives of Tehran. However, The Council of Guardians then ruled numerous ballots “void” and was able to get him chosen as the 30th representative. Nevertheless, he resigned before swearing-in as an MP with the intention of being able to serve the people better in other posts which conveniently appeared as the Chairman of the Expediency Council which make the final decision about the disputed bills from the parliament.

Rafsanjani’s reputation was tinted by so many issues during his political career; the 1998 murders of dissident authors known as the Chain Murders of Iran, his failure to differentiate between privatization and the corrupt takeover of government-owned companies, his deep involvement in various Iranian industries, including the oil industry. There have also been allegations that some of his wealth has come from arms deals made after the revolution.

Rafsanjani family also own vast financial empires in Iran, including foreign trade, vast landholdings and the largest network of private universities in Iran which are known as Azad and these have 300 campuses spread all over the country. They do not only have large financial resources but also an active cadre of student activists numbering around 3 million.


Having said all that, Rafsanjani has had a track record of handling difficult situations and managing crisises. His approach of dealing with delicate political crisises is very subtle. Giving the present situation in Iran, he had expressed his resentment toward Ahmadinejad’s remarks (accusing him and his family of corruption) in an open letter to the supreme leader. He was the prominent supporter of Mousavi, the main challenger of Ahmadinejad. In the post election time and in amid of the demonstrations and the crack down on the protestors, however, he kept a very ominous silence and left the door open for assumptions and speculations about his opinion of the whole situation. He preferred unlike to his old comrade, the supreme leader, to weigh up the situation first and remained above the fray. After days of waiting he made the delicate statement with the well chosen vocabulary. He expressed his concerns about the future of the regime and the system’s long-term interests and advised everyone to find a rational and logical way to solve the disagreements. He hoped with good management and wisdom the issues would be settled. He also expressed his sympathy towards the families of the detainees during the demonstrations. Once more he proved that he is the man of negotiation not the man of principals. The recent event reminds everyone of May 1999; the time that the mayor of Tehran, Gholmhossein Karbaschi appointed and backed by Rafsanjani was unjustly accused of corruption and misuse of funds and began serving a two-year sentence in prison and 10 years suspension of any official post. Rafsanjani was no longer his supporter and rather not to mention his name under any circumstances anymore.

The main question is in the end, who is Hashemi Rafsanjani? What if anything defines him? What is it that makes him so distinguishable from the other clerics? His judgment, his principals and his moral values have always been subject to change. Given the right “price” everything about him is hostage to circumstance. Those people, who hoped he would come to the rescue, now, should ask themselves if there is anything about him which can not be compromised.

Once again the puppet master pulled the strings in order to control what went on beneath him. He used actions in addition to thoughtfully assembled words as his weapons in order to exploit his victims. What he has gained from this battle remains to be seen.


Shahin M

THE HOTTEST SEASON

THE HOTTEST SEASON

It is going to be a long and hot summer in Iran. After days of political turmoil, demonstrations and violence across the country now there is a long pregnant silence. This quiet but bizarre atmosphere could be construed in different ways; as the fire beneath the ashes or the end of another sad Iranian political tragedy. In politics, there is one commodity any government can never have enough of and that is credibility. It certainly goes beyond respect and trust for an individual; it implies a level of confidence in the government’s performance and indeed in almost every circumstance in real life, credibility is not something anyone can gain by deception.

Since the 12th of June and even during the campaign for the presidential election the credibility of the regime in Iran has been in tatters. The statistical information which was provided by Ahaminejad and his team did not match with the perception of the people’s daily lives. Their smear campaign about their rivals did not conform to the cultural and moral values of the voters. The process of the election and the way it was managed or mismanaged seriously raised the possibility of fraud and vote rigging which in turn exacerbated the incredibility of the government. Furthermore, the crack down on the demonstrations, arresting the government’s opponents and using the Iron Fist against the same voters whom they had praised a week before for their participation left absolutely nothing for this government to celebrate.

For more than 30 years none had witnessed millions of demonstrators actively, openly and peacefully defying the whole system of the cleric jurist. The regime realized that it had no option except creating an atmosphere of fear and horror across the country in order to survive. While the whole world was watching, the trust in the Iranian government was completely eroded if not destroyed. Now for the vast majority of Iranian the regime is an illegitimate one and has no political attractiveness. In the course of history, it has been proven that illegitimate governments are bound to fail. It is only matter of when. There is crystal clear evidence that neither the leadership nor the government enjoy the support of the people. The unresolved political rift also is appeared inside the system which is even more devastating for the regime. It is hard to imagine how Ahmadinejad can bridge this gap of credibility over the rigged election and expects not only the nation but also the politicians to support and help him in order to rule the country.

In terms of foreign policy, Iran sees itself as a regional superpower. It has unquestionable influence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Beirut and Palestine. Its cooperation is much needed to stabilize the security in the region. However, this government would have to deal with destabilizing problems due to lack of the credibility at home for the foreseeable future and this makes it unable to play any critical role across the region. The consequence is obviously an isolated regime with too many issues inside the country which in turn affects its reputation abroad. Moreover, the main intention of Ahmadinejad and his team was to win the election with a landslide and more importantly believable majority to strengthen their position in international negotiations such as possible dialog with Obama’s administration, nuclear issues and the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are now suffering a serious illegitimacy problem which affects their authority to deal with domestic issues let alone their international problems.

This long hot summer in Iran has already struck fear in the hearts of the politicians.




Shahin M