TORNADO ON THE HORIZON

TORNADO ON THE HORIZON

Another Friday pray, another sermon, another earthquake. What happened on 17th of July in Tehran University once again shook the pillars of the Islamic regime in Iran. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani used carefully assembled words in his sermon in order to have a marked impact on the future of the “crisis”. During the last thirty years Rafsanjani managed to remain impartial and was very careful not to associate himself with any political factions of the regime. Rafsanjani has always seen himself as the one who steers the regime through the most difficult crisis by being above the fray. This time, however, he inevitably had to align himself with the demonstrators. In essence, what he said during his sermon was less important than what he did not say. The whole establishment and particularly the supreme leader had expected Rafsanjani to fully support his supremacy and convince the nation that it is in the best interest of the country to accept the result of the election. They hoped he would no longer challenge Ahmadinejad or the disputed election. However, Rafsanjani’s sermon was anything but a remedy for nervous politicians who desperately needed him to calm the situation. His speech, when he suggested an open debate in order to satisfy those who have every reason to be dubious, clearly indicated that the crisis is far from being resolved. Even calling the present situation a crisis was unbearable for the hardliners who have consistently denied such an atmosphere. In what it seems a well orchestrated act of defiance the former president Mohammad khatami only two days after Rafsanjani’s sermon called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the government.

Meanwhile, on the other edge of this unresolved political rift, the supreme leader in his latest speech warned the elite of the regime to be very carful about what they say and more importantly what they do not say. He made it crystal clear that the elite of the regime, no matter how prominent, are being tested; their failure is the beginning of their downfall.

It is obvious that the political division on the highest level of the establishment is increasing. This simultaneous occurrence of political events during the last few days by their very nature indicates an approaching storm which aggravates the situation drastically. The very existence of the regime is at stake. The stakes could not be higher.


Shahin M