ROCKING THE BOAT

ROCKING THE BOAT

The so called re-elected president of Iran sees himself as the one who is destined to change the course of history. He believes that the whole civilization and in particular the American one, will soon come to a tumultuous end with some kind of catastrophic global event. During the last four years he has addressed this point on many occasions in a rhetorical style. He plans to hasten the return of the Islamic messiah by following his vision of the apocalypse. Ahmadinejad’s belief in the 12th Imam’s return is rooted in a radical secret society known as the Hojjatieh, virulently anti-Western, anti-Sunni and committed to the arcane belief; a true Islamic state which can only be realized with the return of the 12th Imam. According to this ideology the 12th descendant of the Prophet Mohammed will save the world from injustice and corruption and it is every Shi’a’s duty to be prepared for such a cataclysmic event. It also maintains that a functioning Islamic government delays the return of the Mahdi. This was one of their basic tenets which challenged Khomeini’s concept of Islamic government, velayat-e faqih (the Guardianship of the Supreme Jurist). This ideology also implies that causing chaos is a necessary requisite for Mahdi’s reappearance. The Hojjatieh Society opposes religious involvement in political affairs, but has set that precept aside when it suits its purpose to subvert the political establishment. It was based on this particular exemption that Hojjatieh played a crucial role in overthrowing the Shah’s regime in 1979. However, after the revolution this clandestine society was dissolved when Khomeini condemned its extreme ideology on 12 August 1983: “Those who believe we should allow sins to increase until the 12th Imam reappears should modify and reconsider their position…if you believe in your country [then] get rid of this factionalism and join the wave that is carrying the nation forward, otherwise it will break you”. The formal end of the Hojjatieh Society did not necessarily mean the end of its role in politics. Although the society entered a period of relative inactivity, at the same time Hojjatieh members gradually penetrated the different layers of the establishment including the Assembly of Experts; a deliberative body of 86 Islamic scholars that is in charge with electing and removing the Supreme Leader of Iran and supervising his activities. After two decades from that time the new assembly’s importance is heightened by the likelihood that it will have to select a new supreme leader during its eight-year term to replace Khamenei. Command of Assembly of Experts is crucial to determining Iran’s future direction and its drive to become the paramount power in the Middle East and a global player.

One of the key members of the Assembly of Experts is Ahmadinejad’s Holy Father and his spiritual mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a deeply conservative cleric with close ties to the Hojjatieh-founded Haggani theological school in Qom. He is reported to be the highest ranking cleric of the Hojjatieh, although he has always denied it. Mesbah Yazdi fought hard to secure his seat in the Assembly of Experts; this key centre of authority in a present power struggle of the regime. He and his followers in the Assembly are increasingly seen as a direct threat to Khamenei’s supremacy.

During his first term in the office, Ahmadinejad chose many members of his cabinet from Haggani graduates and Hojjatieh followers. In fact, the executive branch of the government as well as the large section of the Revolutionary Guard has been hijacked by the ultra-orthodox radicals of the Hojjatieh Society. Another piece of this puzzling jigsaw is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie a controversial figure with strong link with the Hojjatieh Society. The recent conflict between Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader over appointing Mashaie as the new Fist Vice President demonstrates the potential threat from Hojjattie felt by the Supreme Leader. It took more than a week for the president to give way to pressure from the Supreme Leader and dismiss Mashaie and even following Mashaie resignation, Ahamdinejad appointed him as his chief of staff.

The predicament for Ahamdinejad is now fighting on two fronts. On one hand the government’s opponents are still challenging the system in the streets of major cities across the country; on the other hand there is infighting between the radical conservatives with different perceptions of the future establishment. This is not the challenge which could be seen, by any stretch of imagination as the easy one. Whether Ahmadinejad can survive such a confrontation remains to be seen. There are many in Iran who see Ahmadinejad’s re-election as a coup d’état against the nation. However, for Ahmadinejad and his supporters in the radical Hojjatieh Society the reappearance of the 12th Imam is in the offing and they are prepared to rock the boat in spite of everything.


Shahin M