THE HOTTEST SEASON
It is going to be a long and hot summer in Iran. After days of political turmoil, demonstrations and violence across the country now there is a long pregnant silence. This quiet but bizarre atmosphere could be construed in different ways; as the fire beneath the ashes or the end of another sad Iranian political tragedy. In politics, there is one commodity any government can never have enough of and that is credibility. It certainly goes beyond respect and trust for an individual; it implies a level of confidence in the government’s performance and indeed in almost every circumstance in real life, credibility is not something anyone can gain by deception.
Since the 12th of June and even during the campaign for the presidential election the credibility of the regime in Iran has been in tatters. The statistical information which was provided by Ahaminejad and his team did not match with the perception of the people’s daily lives. Their smear campaign about their rivals did not conform to the cultural and moral values of the voters. The process of the election and the way it was managed or mismanaged seriously raised the possibility of fraud and vote rigging which in turn exacerbated the incredibility of the government. Furthermore, the crack down on the demonstrations, arresting the government’s opponents and using the Iron Fist against the same voters whom they had praised a week before for their participation left absolutely nothing for this government to celebrate.
For more than 30 years none had witnessed millions of demonstrators actively, openly and peacefully defying the whole system of the cleric jurist. The regime realized that it had no option except creating an atmosphere of fear and horror across the country in order to survive. While the whole world was watching, the trust in the Iranian government was completely eroded if not destroyed. Now for the vast majority of Iranian the regime is an illegitimate one and has no political attractiveness. In the course of history, it has been proven that illegitimate governments are bound to fail. It is only matter of when. There is crystal clear evidence that neither the leadership nor the government enjoy the support of the people. The unresolved political rift also is appeared inside the system which is even more devastating for the regime. It is hard to imagine how Ahmadinejad can bridge this gap of credibility over the rigged election and expects not only the nation but also the politicians to support and help him in order to rule the country.
In terms of foreign policy, Iran sees itself as a regional superpower. It has unquestionable influence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Beirut and Palestine. Its cooperation is much needed to stabilize the security in the region. However, this government would have to deal with destabilizing problems due to lack of the credibility at home for the foreseeable future and this makes it unable to play any critical role across the region. The consequence is obviously an isolated regime with too many issues inside the country which in turn affects its reputation abroad. Moreover, the main intention of Ahmadinejad and his team was to win the election with a landslide and more importantly believable majority to strengthen their position in international negotiations such as possible dialog with Obama’s administration, nuclear issues and the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are now suffering a serious illegitimacy problem which affects their authority to deal with domestic issues let alone their international problems.
This long hot summer in Iran has already struck fear in the hearts of the politicians.
Shahin M
It is going to be a long and hot summer in Iran. After days of political turmoil, demonstrations and violence across the country now there is a long pregnant silence. This quiet but bizarre atmosphere could be construed in different ways; as the fire beneath the ashes or the end of another sad Iranian political tragedy. In politics, there is one commodity any government can never have enough of and that is credibility. It certainly goes beyond respect and trust for an individual; it implies a level of confidence in the government’s performance and indeed in almost every circumstance in real life, credibility is not something anyone can gain by deception.
Since the 12th of June and even during the campaign for the presidential election the credibility of the regime in Iran has been in tatters. The statistical information which was provided by Ahaminejad and his team did not match with the perception of the people’s daily lives. Their smear campaign about their rivals did not conform to the cultural and moral values of the voters. The process of the election and the way it was managed or mismanaged seriously raised the possibility of fraud and vote rigging which in turn exacerbated the incredibility of the government. Furthermore, the crack down on the demonstrations, arresting the government’s opponents and using the Iron Fist against the same voters whom they had praised a week before for their participation left absolutely nothing for this government to celebrate.
For more than 30 years none had witnessed millions of demonstrators actively, openly and peacefully defying the whole system of the cleric jurist. The regime realized that it had no option except creating an atmosphere of fear and horror across the country in order to survive. While the whole world was watching, the trust in the Iranian government was completely eroded if not destroyed. Now for the vast majority of Iranian the regime is an illegitimate one and has no political attractiveness. In the course of history, it has been proven that illegitimate governments are bound to fail. It is only matter of when. There is crystal clear evidence that neither the leadership nor the government enjoy the support of the people. The unresolved political rift also is appeared inside the system which is even more devastating for the regime. It is hard to imagine how Ahmadinejad can bridge this gap of credibility over the rigged election and expects not only the nation but also the politicians to support and help him in order to rule the country.
In terms of foreign policy, Iran sees itself as a regional superpower. It has unquestionable influence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Beirut and Palestine. Its cooperation is much needed to stabilize the security in the region. However, this government would have to deal with destabilizing problems due to lack of the credibility at home for the foreseeable future and this makes it unable to play any critical role across the region. The consequence is obviously an isolated regime with too many issues inside the country which in turn affects its reputation abroad. Moreover, the main intention of Ahmadinejad and his team was to win the election with a landslide and more importantly believable majority to strengthen their position in international negotiations such as possible dialog with Obama’s administration, nuclear issues and the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are now suffering a serious illegitimacy problem which affects their authority to deal with domestic issues let alone their international problems.
This long hot summer in Iran has already struck fear in the hearts of the politicians.
Shahin M
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