AN UPHILL STRUGGLE
The present situation in Iran is a period of political and social upheaval and radical change which is unprecedented in the history of the Islamic regime. This movement might not be succeeding this time but it is certainly changing the equilibrium of forces on the top of the hierarchy of the regime. During the last fortnight, the regime managed to alienate some of the most influential people in the core of system. Interestingly, it did happen in front of the people who had been kept out of the power struggle inside the regime for 30 years. It should not be forgotten that characters like Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mir Hossein Mossavi and Karroubi, all belong to the core of the establishment. People are stunned by the scale of the disagreement across the system. This illustrates the fact that the regime is in a transitional period. The nature of the system is dramatically changing. The republic element of the regime is being ignored or even intended to be wiped off. Those people who are against this new ideology will be known as outsiders.
There are so many theories regarding what is happening inside the establishment. The most likely theory is that, the fundamentalist clerics have decided to change the nature of the regime from an Islamic republic to the extreme form of Islamic regime which gives absolute authority to the religious establishment. There might even be a life time president to run the country according to the policy dictated by the supreme leader. Even if this theory proves inaccurate or wrong, the fact that the regime does not tolerate any kind of criticism and dispute indicates the inclination toward a totalitarian regime. The initial stage of this reality has already been seen in the streets of Tehran or other major cities in Iran. The question is what should be done?
The present situation in Iran is a period of political and social upheaval and radical change which is unprecedented in the history of the Islamic regime. This movement might not be succeeding this time but it is certainly changing the equilibrium of forces on the top of the hierarchy of the regime. During the last fortnight, the regime managed to alienate some of the most influential people in the core of system. Interestingly, it did happen in front of the people who had been kept out of the power struggle inside the regime for 30 years. It should not be forgotten that characters like Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mir Hossein Mossavi and Karroubi, all belong to the core of the establishment. People are stunned by the scale of the disagreement across the system. This illustrates the fact that the regime is in a transitional period. The nature of the system is dramatically changing. The republic element of the regime is being ignored or even intended to be wiped off. Those people who are against this new ideology will be known as outsiders.
There are so many theories regarding what is happening inside the establishment. The most likely theory is that, the fundamentalist clerics have decided to change the nature of the regime from an Islamic republic to the extreme form of Islamic regime which gives absolute authority to the religious establishment. There might even be a life time president to run the country according to the policy dictated by the supreme leader. Even if this theory proves inaccurate or wrong, the fact that the regime does not tolerate any kind of criticism and dispute indicates the inclination toward a totalitarian regime. The initial stage of this reality has already been seen in the streets of Tehran or other major cities in Iran. The question is what should be done?
Civil disobedience
Giving the level of brutality of the security services and riot police during the last few days, it is generally accepted that people are now petrified of taking to the streets and demonstrating openly. There are, however, a few brave and very determined young people who are still willing to risk their lives and confront the ferocity of the members of the militia.
Civil disobedience is the active refusal to obey certain laws, demands and commands of a government without resorting to physical violence or even risk one’s life. This has been practised effectively in different parts of the world. In Egypt during 1919 revolution against the British occupation, in India during the campaign for independence from the British Empire, in East Germany to oust their communist dictatorships and so many other places. This technique is generally used when the ruling government shuts down all other possible and obvious routs in front of its opponents. It is interesting that people in Iran have already adopted the technique by going to rooftops and shouting slogans during the night or switching on their car’s headlights during the day. However, this kind of protest must be generalized and become widespread to be really effective.
The enormous pressure which the authorities used during the last 10 days has resulted in increasing the sense of frustration among the general public. People do not change their minds because of repression from the government; they change their strategy instead and adopt new techniques to tackle the problem. Those who were killed, injured and arrested established a milestone which signifies the paramount importance of democracy.
Political sanction
I firmly believe that western countries should send a strong signal to the authorities in Iran not only condemning the violence against its own people but also threatening to down-grade their relationship. The Iranian regime accuses the west of interfering in its affairs anyway. If all the EU countries and the United States unanimously agree to pressurize Iran, they will have the political initiative against the Iranian government. Such a united policy would strengthen the position of the government’s opponents and also highlight the lack of credibility of the regime in the eyes of the international community.
Shahin Motamedi
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