Crisis mangement

Crisis management

Crisis management by the definition is the process by which a system deals with any major unpredictable event that threatens to harm the system. Three elements are common to most definitions of crisis: (a) a threat to the organization, (b) the element of surprise, and (c) a short decision time. Crisis in Iran is not an exception from the above elements.

a) It certainly imposes serious threats against the core of the regime. It has effectively undermined the credibility and the virtue of the republic of the system. Outside of Iran it has damaged the reputation of the Islamic republic of Iran, particularly among Islamic nations.

b) The regime might have expected some opposition after of the announcement of the results. However, it was certainly surprised by the scale of the demonstration.

c) This is the most important element in this crisis like any other crisis. For many years the regime tried to manage the effect of information technology inside Iran. All the internet service providers are registered by the government. The mobile network companies are either totally or partially governmental therefore the government has direct influence on how and when they operate. The government is effectively equipped to jam the satellite waves and prevent the general public from listening to the outside radio and watching the satellite television. Having said that, the Iranian government did not pace itself with the advances in information technology. For the very reason and despite the latest decision about banding the foreign reporters from the streets of Tehran, there are still influx of information from inside of Iran including video footages, pictures and the news updates. In fact this way of communication has hindered the efforts of the ruling system to control the situation on the ground. Modern technology has not only strengthened the element of surprise but also has shortened the decision time for the security services to deal with demonstrations at the different part of a mega city like Tehran.


The government of Iran has its own strategy to solve this problem

Ι. Crisis, what crisis? Mr. Ahamadi nejad during his first press conference after the announcement of the results tried to scale down the severity of the problem. He compared his political opponents to the losers of a football match but also accused them of passing the red light so deserving to be arrested. We should not make the mistake of thinking this is a denial of the reality of the situation but is rather a conning strategy to attempt to manage the crisis.

ΙΙ. Smear campaign: The state television fed the general public with reports about the hooligans who vandalized banks, cars and public properties. It therefore minimized the amount of support the demonstrators had.

ΙΙΙ. Carrot & stick: From one hand the supreme leader and the guardian council offered limited compromises regarding recount of the votes and dealing with opponents' complaints, on the other hand the riot police and militia groups stormed the dormitories, university campuses and charged the demonstrators with ferocity and brutality. At the same time the supreme leader asked the demonstrators to calm down and let the guardian council deal with the problem in a peaceful atmosphere.


So far the crowd in the streets of Tehran and other major cities across the country emboldened by their million-strong march on Monday demonstrate their total refusal to accept any compromise. It is crucially important to be aware of the strategic retreat by the government in the coming days which is to calm the situation first and then clamp down on the opposition completely.

Shahin M